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Capstone 01 · Macro forecasting

Macro Forecasting Desk

Turn a macroeconomic vintage into a decision-ready forecast. You will define transformations, establish an honest benchmark, estimate richer dynamics, evaluate every horizon out of sample, and publish uncertainty rather than only a point forecast.

Data design and provenance

This build does not redistribute external observations because reuse permission was not verified. It uses a deterministic synthetic monthly snapshot, clearly marked in the downloadable provenance manifest. The research design mirrors the official series definitions for CPIAUCSL, INDPRO, and FEDFUNDS.

What expert work looks like

A credible desk separates the decision target from model inputs, honors release timing, retains a simple benchmark, and reports loss by forecast horizon. A richer model earns its place only when it improves held-out performance or supplies interpretable scenario information.