Data design and provenance
The project uses a deterministic synthetic business-daily USD-per-EUR series because external observation reuse permission was not verified for this build. Its orientation and frequency follow the official ECB daily USD/EUR reference-rate series; no ECB observations are redistributed.
What expert work looks like
Risk forecasts declare the horizon, tail probability, loss orientation, estimation window, and exception rule in advance. A model that produces plausible volatility but fails coverage or independence backtests is not production-ready.